A true expert knows which question should be asked.

Arbeitspapier

We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a small” set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that or any choice of a small” set of sequences, only a small” set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence for most” measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 1385

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General ; Econometric Modeling: General
• Subject: Asymmetrische Information ; Informationsverhalten ; Sachverständige ; Informationsökonomik

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Dekel, Eddie ; Feinberg, Yossi
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science
• (where): Evanston, IL
• (when): 2004

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/31221
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET