Polarization in the South African labour market: Economy-wide scenarios

Arbeitspapier

Technical change impacts both the employment intensity of production and the composition of occupations and skills of employment. Artificial intelligence, automation, and robots are already leading to machines undertaking routinizable tasks previously carried out by workers. This can lead to labour market polarization, with jobs in the middle of the wage/occupation distribution being lost relative to those at the top and bottom ends. South Africa may be a latecomer to this process, but there is already evidence it is under way and may accelerate. We offer an economy-wide perspective on this process. A standard comparative static computable general equilibrium framework is employed to explore first- and second-order impacts of equipment substituting for routine labour in production. We find that second-order economywide effects may offset some but not all of the first-order losses in routine jobs.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-92-9256-878-8
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: WIDER Working Paper ; No. 2020/121

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Computable General Equilibrium Models ; Labor Demand ; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity ; Economywide Country Studies: Africa
• Subject: labour market ; polarization ; computable general equilibrium ; tasks ; South Africa

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Davies, Rob ; van Seventer, Dirk
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2020

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2020/878-8
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229345
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET