Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators instable?

Konferenzbeitrag

We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, thereafter they lose predictive power, even when the last crisis is considered. Translating the predictive power of technical indicators into a standard investment strategy delivers an average Sharpe Ratio of 0.6 p.a. for investors who had entered the market at any point in time.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2015: Ökonomische Entwicklung - Theorie und Politik - Session: Financial Economics II ; No. B10-V1

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Financial Forecasting and Simulation ; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions ; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Baetje, Fabian ; Menkhoff, Lukas
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/113079
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET