Arbeitspapier

The effect of unconventional fiscal policy on consumption expenditure

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Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy. To comply with European Union law, the German government announced in November 2005 an unexpected 3-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), effective in 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness to purchase durables increased by 34% after the shock, compared to before and to matched households in other European countries not exposed to the VAT shock. Income, wealth effects, or intratemporal substitution cannot explain these results.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: KIT Working Paper Series in Economics ; No. 94

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Expectations; Speculations
Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making‡
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Monetary Policy
Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
Thema
Zero-Lower Bound
Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Durable Consumption
Survey Data
Household Consumption

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
D'Acunto, Francesco
Hoang, Daniel
Weber, Michael
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON)
(wo)
Karlsruhe
(wann)
2016

DOI
doi:10.5445/IR/1000062012
Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-620122
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • D'Acunto, Francesco
  • Hoang, Daniel
  • Weber, Michael
  • Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (ECON)

Entstanden

  • 2016

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