Arbeitspapier

Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.

ISBN
3938369361
Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Diskussionsbeiträge ; No. 2006/11

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Thema
monetary policy
ECB
forecast
geography
history
heterogeneity
Taylor rule
learning
transmission
survey data
communication
Geldpolitik
Prognose
Kritik
Taylor-Regel
Transmissionsmechanismus
Regionale Disparität
EU-Staaten

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Berger, Helge
Ehrmann, Michael
Fratzscher, Marcel
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
(wo)
Berlin
(wann)
2006

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Berger, Helge
  • Ehrmann, Michael
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft

Entstanden

  • 2006

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