Arbeitspapier

Exploring the nexus between inflation and globalization under inflation targeting through the lens of New Zealand's experience

We investigate empirically the inflation dynamics in New Zealand, a small open economy and a pioneer in inflation targeting, under various open-economy Phillips curve specifications. Our forecasting exercise suggests that open-economy Phillips curves under standard measures of global slack do not help forecast domestic inflation, possibly indicating measurement problems with global slack itself. In turn, under a stable inflation target we still find that (i) global inflation or (ii) global inflation or oil prices have information content for headline CPI and core CPI inflation over the 1997:Q3-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper ; No. 1709

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Economic Impacts of Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
Thema
Inflation Dynamics
Open-Economy Phillips Curve
Inflation Targeting
Inflation Forecasting

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe
Martínez-García, Enrique
Soytaş, Mehmet Ali
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)
(wo)
Istanbul
(wann)
2017

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe
  • Martínez-García, Enrique
  • Soytaş, Mehmet Ali
  • Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Entstanden

  • 2017

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