Arbeitspapier
Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors
Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such samples are investigated. Considering optimal forecasts, the efficiency gains can be substantial if the sample is not too large. If forecast uncertainty is estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions, the covariance matrix of the squared forecast errors does not have to be estimated, but simply needs to have a certain structure. In Monte Carlo studies it is found that seemingly unrelated regressions mostly yield estimates which are more efficient than the sample means even if the forecasts are not optimal. Seemingly unrelated regressions are used to address questions concerning the inflation forecast uncertainty of the Bank of England.
- ISBN
-
978-3-86558-565-3
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2009,28
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Estimation: General
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
Multi-step-ahead forecasts
forecast error variance
GLS
SUR
Prognoseverfahren
Risiko
Statistischer Fehler
Inflationsrate
Prognose
Schätzung
Großbritannien
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Knüppel, Malte
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Knüppel, Malte
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2009
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