Arbeitspapier

Demographic dynamics and long-run development: Insights for the secular stagnation debate

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy ; No. 226

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Quantitative Policy Modeling
General Aggregative Models: General
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Demographic Economics: Public Policy
Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: General, International, or Comparative
Economic Development: General
Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Thema
J 13
secular stagnation
long-term development
income growth
demographic transition

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Cervellati, Matteo
Sunde, Uwe
Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF)
(wo)
Bonn
(wann)
2016

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:23 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Cervellati, Matteo
  • Sunde, Uwe
  • Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  • University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF)

Entstanden

  • 2016

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