Arbeitspapier

The US inflation-unemployment tradeoff: methodological issues and further evidence

This paper addresses the various methodological issues surrounding vector autoregressions, simultaneous equations, and chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that money growth is a superior indicator of the monetary environment than the federal funds rate and, thus, the focus is on the inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of moments) estimations confirm earlier findings in Karanassou, Sala and Snower (2005, 2008b) obtained from chain reaction structural models: the slope of the US Phillips curve is far from vertical, even in the long-run, which implies that the nominal and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoffs, policy makers should reconsider the classical dichotomy thesis.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 4252

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
Thema
Inflation
unemployment
money growth
SVAR
GMM
structural modelling
chain reactions
Phillips-Kurve
Geldmenge
VAR-Modell
Momentenmethode
Schätzung
USA

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Karanassou, Marika
Sala, Héctor
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
(wo)
Bonn
(wann)
2009

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:101:1-20090703147
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:24 MESZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Karanassou, Marika
  • Sala, Héctor
  • Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Entstanden

  • 2009

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