Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Arbeitspapier

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 1617

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Agriculture in International Trade ; Renewable Resources and Conservation: Water
• Thema: Computable General Equilibrium ; Climate Change ; Agriculture ; Water Resources ; Klimaveränderung ; Prognose ; Landwirtschaft ; Produktivität ; Wasserversorgung ; Wohlfahrtseffekt ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht ; Mehr-Länder-Modell ; Simulation ; Welt

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Calzadilla, Alvaro ; Rehdanz, Katrin ; Betts, Richard ; Falloon, Pete ; Wiltshire, Andy ; Tol, Richard S. J.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
• (wo): Kiel
• (wann): 2010

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/32519
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ