Impactos macroeconômicos do choque fiscal de 2015: A regularização de despesas públicas não contabilizadas

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts derived from the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities during 2015 in Brazil. This is done within a DSGE model with a detailed public sector developed and calibrated for the Brazilian economy. The gradual recognition of these fiscal liabilities is interpreted as a series of "news shocks" in response to which private agents may have updated their expectations regarding the sustainability of the public debt and the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures, thus generating potentially significant macroeconomic effects. The paper's main results are: i) the shocks related to the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities may have caused significant output loss and inflationary pressure; ii) a fiscal reaction function based on the reduction of public employment and the increase in income tax rates would have generated smaller macroeconomic costs relative to the rule actually adopted (based on the reduction of public consumption and investment); iii) delaying or downsizing the required fiscal adjustment in the short run would have led to the worsening of fiscal indicators and generated much larger costs in terms of output loss and higher inflation.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Portugiesisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Texto para Discussão ; No. 2394

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Fiscal Policy ; Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
• Thema: DSGE models ; fiscal policy ; fiscal transparency

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Cavalcanti, Marco Antônio Freitas de Hollanda ; Oliveira, Luciano Vereda ; Zanderer, Rafael ; Rabelo, Matheus
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
• (wo): Brasília
• (wann): 2018

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/211344
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ