Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in real time

Arbeitspapier

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the ex-ante assessment of tax reforms accounting for second-round effects, i.e. the dynamic scoring of tax reforms. We combine a microsimulation model for selected European countries with VAR estimates of macro responses and, exploiting a unique database of tax reforms in the EU, compare our estimates with the real-time assessment of tax reforms conducted by the EU Member States as well as with ex-post realisations. This is the first time dynamic scoring of tax reforms is conducted in real-time and compared to ex-post realizations in a systematic way. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of a macro-econometric model combined with a microsimulation model which represents a more flexible tool than (computable) general equilibrium models in order to conduct real-time dynamic scoring analysis. Our results suggest that on average personal income tax cuts resulted in modest medium-term increases in output and employment; while the second-round revenue impact is found to be small relative to the first-round microsimulation results.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: JRC Working Papers on Taxation and Structural Reforms ; No. 14/2022

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft
• Thema: Steuerreform ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Prognoseverfahren ; Mikrosimulation ; Makroökonometrie ; EU-Staaten

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Barrios Cobos, Salvador ; Reut, Adriana ; Riscado, Sara ; Van Der Wielen, Wouter
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
• (wo): Seville
• (wann): 2022

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/280872
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ