Bericht
Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self-reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the output-inflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long-term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Kiel Policy Brief ; No. 79
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Wieland, Volker
Wolters, Maik
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- (where)
-
Kiel
- (when)
-
2014
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Bericht
Associated
- Wieland, Volker
- Wolters, Maik
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Time of origin
- 2014
Other Objects (12)
Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
Zur Qualität der Dokumentation der Schockraumversorgung schwer Traumatisierter : ein Vergleich von primär EDV-gestützter und handschriftlicher Dokumentation
The decline in euro area inflation and the choice of policy strategy
Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate
Learning, endogenous indexation and disinflation in the New-Keynesian model
Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts: A comment
Taylor rules and the inflation surge: The case of the Fed
The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan
The ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court concerning the public sector purchase program: A practical way forward
The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB
The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
Zur Qualität der Dokumentation der Schockraumversorgung schwer Traumatisierter : ein Vergleich von primär EDV-gestützter und handschriftlicher Dokumentation
The decline in euro area inflation and the choice of policy strategy
Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate
Learning, endogenous indexation and disinflation in the New-Keynesian model
Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts: A comment
Taylor rules and the inflation surge: The case of the Fed
The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan
The ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court concerning the public sector purchase program: A practical way forward
The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB
The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
Zur Qualität der Dokumentation der Schockraumversorgung schwer Traumatisierter : ein Vergleich von primär EDV-gestützter und handschriftlicher Dokumentation
The decline in euro area inflation and the choice of policy strategy
Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate
Learning, endogenous indexation and disinflation in the New-Keynesian model
Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts: A comment
Taylor rules and the inflation surge: The case of the Fed
The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan
The ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court concerning the public sector purchase program: A practical way forward
The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Forward guidance and "lower for longer": The case of the ECB