Arbeitspapier

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of non-financial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. We test this proposition using a panel of non-financial US firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1991-2001. The estimates confirm that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of leverage. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to the inclusion of the index of leading indicators.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 443

Classification
Wirtschaft
Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Subject
leverage
uncertainty
non-financial firms
panel data

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Baum, Christopher F.
Stephan, Andreas
Talavera, Oleksandr
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
(where)
Berlin
(when)
2004

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Stephan, Andreas
  • Talavera, Oleksandr
  • Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Time of origin

  • 2004

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