High risk of a housing bubble in Germany and most OECD countries

Artikel

Housing prices in many countries have increased significantly over the past years, fueling a fear that speculative price bubbles will return. However, it can be difficult for policymakers to recognize when regulatory interventions in the market are necessary to counteract bubbles. This report shows how modern machine learning methods can be used to forecast speculative price bubbles at an early stage. Early warning models show that many OECD countries have an increased risk of speculative bubbles. In Germany, there are explosive price developments that have decoupled from real estate earnings. However, the forecast model indicates that the risk will decrease somewhat over the coming months at a high level. Unfortunately, the preventative measures in Germany remain insufficient. For example, there is a lack of intervention options involving household debt ceilings, and it is unclear when the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) can begin intervening in the market.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Journal: DIW Weekly Report ; ISSN: 2568-7697 ; Volume: 9 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 32 ; Pages: 265-273 ; Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Thema: early warning system ; speculative housing price bubble ; panel logit,decision tree ; random forest ; support vector machine

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Cholodilin, Konstantin A. ; Michelsen, Claus
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2019

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.18723/diw_dwr:2019-32-1
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/203171
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ