Arbeitspapier
The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability
I combine two fields of research on default prediction by empirically testing a bankruptcy prediction function where unlisted firms are evaluated on the basis of both their financial statement analysis and the macroeconomic environment. This combination is found to improve the default prediction compared to financial statements alone. The GDP-gap, a production index and the money supply M1 in combination with some financial health indicators for individual firms are found to be significant predictors on default for Norwegian firms during both a recovery and expansion in the 1990's.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Discussion Papers ; No. 466
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- Subject
-
bankruptcy prediction
macroeconomic environment
financial ratios
logit model
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Hol, Suzan
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Statistics Norway, Research Department
- (where)
-
Oslo
- (when)
-
2006
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Hol, Suzan
- Statistics Norway, Research Department
Time of origin
- 2006
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