Arbeitspapier
What Drives Natural Gas Prices? - A Structural VAR Approach
In this study, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the German natural gas market. Our setup allows us to analyze the determinants of the natural gas price in a comprehensive framework. In particular, we illustrate the usefulness of our approach by disentangling the effects of different fundamental influences on gas prices during three recent supply interruptions: The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009, the Libyan civil war in 2011 and the withheld Russian exports in February 2012. Our results show that the natural gas price is affected by temperature, storage and supply shortfalls in the short term, while the long-term development is closely tied to both crude oil and coal prices, capturing the economic climate and the energy specific demand.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: EWI Working Paper ; No. 13/02
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices
- Thema
-
natural gas
structural vector autoregression
SVAR
supply interruption
security of supply
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Nick, Sebastian
Thoenes, Stefan
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)
- (wo)
-
Köln
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Nick, Sebastian
- Thoenes, Stefan
- Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)
Entstanden
- 2013
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