Climate change, agriculture, and food security in Tanzania

Arbeitspapier

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are generally considered to be most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no climate change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favourable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. The economic modelling indicates that markets have the potential to smooth outcomes on households across regions and income groups, though noteworthy differences in impacts across households persist both by region and by income category.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-92-9230-419-5
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: WIDER Working Paper ; No. 2011/52

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
• Subject: climate change ; agriculture ; food security ; crop model ; CGE model ; Tanzania ; Klimaveränderung ; Agrarproduktion ; Nahrungsmittelversorgung ; CGE-Modelling ; Tansania

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Arndt, Channing ; Farmer, Will ; Strzepek, Ken ; Thurlow, James
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/54175
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET