Arbeitspapier

Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma

In the winter 2011/12 a wave of internal capital .ight prompted the ECB to abandon its exit strategy and to announce an unprecedented monetary expansion. We analyze this episode in several dimensions: (i) by providing an event-study analysis covering key variables from national central banks.balance sheets, (ii) by rationalizing their patterns in a portfolio balance model of the exchange rate, augmented by institutional characteristics of the TARGET2 system, and (iii) by proposing a theory-based index of exchange market pressure within the euro area. We argue that the euro area entails an inherent policy trilemma that makes it prone to speculative attacks.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper ; No. 108

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems
Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
Thema
Currency Union
Exchange Market Pressure
Policy Trilemma
Speculative Attack
TARGET2

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Steiner, Andreas
Steinkamp, Sven
Westermann, Frank
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Osnabrück University, Institute of Empirical Economic Research
(wo)
Osnabrück
(wann)
2017

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Steiner, Andreas
  • Steinkamp, Sven
  • Westermann, Frank
  • Osnabrück University, Institute of Empirical Economic Research

Entstanden

  • 2017

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