Arbeitspapier
The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus
We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime. The actual and counterfactual TB trajectories are similar overall. Results suggest an around 2 pp lower trade surplus during 2012-15 together with a stronger real effective exchange rate in the counterfactual. The latter shows a similar upward trend in the TB, however, and the 2012-15 gap between actual and counterfactual closes at the end of the sample.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 7543
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Monetary Policy
Open Economy Macroeconomics
- Thema
-
Germany
euro
exchange rate
trade balance
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Hohberger, Stefan
Ratto, Marco
Vogel, Lukas
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2019
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Hohberger, Stefan
- Ratto, Marco
- Vogel, Lukas
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2019
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