Arbeitspapier
Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries Facing World War II
Nordic historians have asserted for a long time that in the Nordic countries only few people, if any, perceived increased threats of war prior to the World War II outbreak. This would explain, and possibly excuse, why their governments did not mobilize their armies until it was too late. This paper questions this established notion by deriving new estimates of widely held war threat assessments from the fluctuations of sovereign market yields collected from all Nordic bond markets at this period. Our results show that the Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings hence question some, but not all, of the standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacit views and opinions of large groups of people in the past.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: IFN Working Paper ; No. 676
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods
Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: Europe: 1913-
- Subject
-
Structural breaks
Sovereign debt
Capital Markets
Historiography
Cliometrics
World War II
Krieg
Finanzmarkt
Öffentliche Anleihe
Strukturbruch
Cliometrie
Geschichte
Dänemark
Finnland
Norwegen
Schweden
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Waldenström, Daniel
Frey, Bruno S.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
- (where)
-
Stockholm
- (when)
-
2006
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Waldenström, Daniel
- Frey, Bruno S.
- Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
Time of origin
- 2006
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