Arbeitspapier
Toward a theory of evaluating predictive accuracy
We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data, and double stochastic simulation. The concept is demonstrated using an empirical example of UK investment data.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Reihe Ökonomie / Economics Series ; No. 162
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
forecasting
time series
investment
Prognoseverfahren
Stochastischer Prozess
Zeitreihenanalyse
Schätzung
Investition
Großbritannien
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kunst, Robert M.
Jumah, Adusei
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)
- (wo)
-
Vienna
- (wann)
-
2004
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kunst, Robert M.
- Jumah, Adusei
- Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)
Entstanden
- 2004
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