The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System

Arbeitspapier

The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system (EWS). That allows for analyzing the preferences of the involved politicians with regard to the two potential errors of an EWS - missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. This is done for the first time for EWS in general by using a standard signals approach including a preference-based optimization approach to set thresholds. It is shown that in general, the thresholds of the scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals) as compared to a neutral stand.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: IWH Discussion Papers ; No. 10/2012

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Financial Crises ; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
• Thema: early warning system ; scoreboard ; preferences ; incentives ; political economy ; Frühwarnsysteme ; Scoreboard ; Präferenzen ; Anreize ; Politische Ökonomie

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Knedlik, Tobias
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
• (wo): Halle (Saale)
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/66855
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-201212176879
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ