Artikel
Insight into predicted shocks in tourism: Review of an ex-ante forecasting
The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into the modelling and forecasting of unknown events or shocks that can affect international tourist arrivals. Time-dependence is vital for summarising scattered findings. The usefulness of econometric forecasting has been recently confirmed by the pandemic and other events that have affected the world economy and, consequently, the tourism sector. In the study, a single Slovenian dataset is input for the analysis of tourist arrivals. Vector autoregressive modelling is used in the modelling process. The data vector from the premium research is extended up to 2022. The latter is an ex-post empirical study to show the validity of the ex-ante predictions. This paper analyses the synthesis of ex-ante predictions which fill the gap in the ex-ante forecasting literature. The study of previous events is relevant for research, policy and practice, with various implications.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Journal: Journal of Risk and Financial Management ; ISSN: 1911-8074 ; Volume: 15 ; Year: 2022 ; Issue: 10 ; Pages: 1-17
- Klassifikation
-
Management
- Thema
-
calamitous events
econometrics
forecasting
pandemic
shocks
time-series
tourism
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Gricar, Sergej
Bojnec, Štefan
Baldigara, Tea
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
MDPI
- (wo)
-
Basel
- (wann)
-
2022
- DOI
-
doi:10.3390/jrfm15100436
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Gricar, Sergej
- Bojnec, Štefan
- Baldigara, Tea
- MDPI
Entstanden
- 2022
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Catching a floating treasure: A genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time
A Framework for Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Tourism Investments: An Application to Haiti
Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited
Forecasting international tourism demand: The evidence of Macedonia
The blue economy effects on EUROMED tourism: forecasting approach
Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism
Realities beyond the Grey-Markov model for forecasting international tourism demand
Tourism demand forecasting using stacking ensemble model with adaptive fuzzy combiner
Employing of Extended Characteristic Surface Model for Forecasting of Demand in Tourism
Ex-ante Economic Assessment of Agriculture Biotechnology
Financial Ex-ante Valuation of IT Projects
Effects of multiple financial news shocks on tourism demand volatility modelling and forecasting
Catching a floating treasure: A genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time
A Framework for Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Tourism Investments: An Application to Haiti
Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited
Forecasting international tourism demand: The evidence of Macedonia
The blue economy effects on EUROMED tourism: forecasting approach
Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism
Realities beyond the Grey-Markov model for forecasting international tourism demand
Tourism demand forecasting using stacking ensemble model with adaptive fuzzy combiner
Employing of Extended Characteristic Surface Model for Forecasting of Demand in Tourism
Ex-ante Economic Assessment of Agriculture Biotechnology
Financial Ex-ante Valuation of IT Projects
Effects of multiple financial news shocks on tourism demand volatility modelling and forecasting
Catching a floating treasure: A genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time
A Framework for Ex-Ante Economic Analysis of Tourism Investments: An Application to Haiti
Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited
Forecasting international tourism demand: The evidence of Macedonia
The blue economy effects on EUROMED tourism: forecasting approach
Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism
Realities beyond the Grey-Markov model for forecasting international tourism demand
Tourism demand forecasting using stacking ensemble model with adaptive fuzzy combiner
Employing of Extended Characteristic Surface Model for Forecasting of Demand in Tourism
Ex-ante Economic Assessment of Agriculture Biotechnology
Financial Ex-ante Valuation of IT Projects