Arbeitspapier

What determines state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes?

We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in Montana. States gain more when their sectoral comparative advantage covaries negatively with that of the aggregate US. Consequently, "preferred" changes in tariffs vary systematically across states, indicating the importance of transfers in aligning state preferences over trade policy. Foreign retaliation substantially reduces the gains across states while perpetuating the cross-state variation.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Working Paper ; No. WP 2023-09

Classification
Wirtschaft
Neoclassical Models of Trade
Economic Impacts of Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
Subject
Interstate trade
Gains from trade
Customs union

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Santacreu, Ana Maria
Sposi, Michael
Zhang, Jing
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
(where)
Chicago, IL
(when)
2023

DOI
doi:10.21033/wp-2023-09
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Santacreu, Ana Maria
  • Sposi, Michael
  • Zhang, Jing
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Time of origin

  • 2023

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