Arbeitspapier
Understanding the economic consequences of shifting trends in population health
The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 4366
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Health: General
Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Retirement; Retirement Policies
- Thema
-
Disability
health care costs
social security
microsimulation
Gesundheit
Gesundheitskosten
Öffentlicher Haushalt
Arbeitsangebot
Einkommen
Öffentliche Sozialausgaben
Schätzung
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Michaud, Pierre-Carl
Goldman, Dana
Lakdawalla, Darius
Zheng, Yuhui
Gailey, Adam H.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2009092869
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Michaud, Pierre-Carl
- Goldman, Dana
- Lakdawalla, Darius
- Zheng, Yuhui
- Gailey, Adam H.
- Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2009
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