Arbeitspapier

Are fiscal multipliers estimated with proxy-SVARs robust?

How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that allows to achieve identification in presence of a number of structural shocks larger than that of the available instruments. Our two main findings are the following. First, the estimate of the tax multiplier is sensitive to the assumption of orthogonality between total factor productivity (non-fiscal proxy) and tax shocks. If this correlation is assumed to be zero, the tax multiplier is found to be around one. If such correlation is nonzero, as supported by our empirical evidence, we find a tax multiplier three times as large. Second, we find the spending multiplier to be robustly larger than one across different models that feature different sets of instruments. Our results are robust to the joint employment of different fiscal and non-fiscal instruments.

ISBN
978-952-323-340-9
Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 13/2020

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Fiscal Policy
Thema
Fiscal multipliers
fiscal policy
identification
instruments
structural vector autoregressions

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Angelini, Giovanni
Caggiano, Giovanni
Castelnuovo, Efrem
Fanelli, Luca
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Bank of Finland
(wo)
Helsinki
(wann)
2020

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Angelini, Giovanni
  • Caggiano, Giovanni
  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Fanelli, Luca
  • Bank of Finland

Entstanden

  • 2020

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