Arbeitspapier

Are fiscal multipliers estimated with proxy-SVARs robust?

How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that allows to achieve identification in presence of a number of structural shocks larger than that of the available instruments. Our two main findings are the following. First, the estimate of the tax multiplier is sensitive to the assumption of orthogonality between total factor productivity (non-fiscal proxy) and tax shocks. If this correlation is assumed to be zero, the tax multiplier is found to be around one. If such correlation is nonzero, as supported by our empirical evidence, we find a tax multiplier three times as large. Second, we find the spending multiplier to be robustly larger than one across different models that feature different sets of instruments. Our results are robust to the joint employment of different fiscal and non-fiscal instruments.

ISBN
978-952-323-340-9
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 13/2020

Classification
Wirtschaft
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Fiscal Policy
Subject
Fiscal multipliers
fiscal policy
identification
instruments
structural vector autoregressions

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Angelini, Giovanni
Caggiano, Giovanni
Castelnuovo, Efrem
Fanelli, Luca
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Bank of Finland
(where)
Helsinki
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Angelini, Giovanni
  • Caggiano, Giovanni
  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Fanelli, Luca
  • Bank of Finland

Time of origin

  • 2020

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