Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments
Abstract ∘ N) and rendering the land–atmosphere carbon exchange highly uncertain. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) employs the most updated climate models to estimate terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics driven by a new set of socioeconomic and climate change pathways. By analyzing the future (2015–2100) carbon fluxes estimated by 10 CMIP6 models, we quantitatively evaluated the projected magnitudes, trends, and uncertainties in the global and NHL carbon fluxes under four scenarios plus the role of NHLs in the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Overall, the models suggest that the global and NHL terrestrial ecosystems will be consistent carbon sinks in the future, and the magnitude of the carbon sinks is projected to be larger under scenarios with higher radiative forcing. By the end of this century, the models on average estimate the NHL net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as 0.54 ± ± ± ± - 1 ∼ 13 %), the relative uncertainties in NHL NEP are much larger than the global level. Our results provide insights into future carbon flux evolutions under future scenarios and highlight the urgent need to constrain the large uncertainties associated with model projections for making better climate mitigation strategies.
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments ; volume:14 ; number:1 ; year:2023 ; pages:1-16 ; extent:16
Earth System Dynamics ; 14, Heft 1 (2023), 1-16 (gesamt 16)
- Creator
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Qiu, Han
Hao, Dalei
Zeng, Yelu
Zhang, Xuesong
Chen, Min
- DOI
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10.5194/esd-14-1-2023
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023011204255970024613
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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15.08.2025, 7:36 AM CEST
Data provider
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Associated
- Qiu, Han
- Hao, Dalei
- Zeng, Yelu
- Zhang, Xuesong
- Chen, Min
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