Arbeitspapier
Estimating and analysing currency options implied risk-neutral density functions for the largest new EU member states
This paper uses data on currency options prices for the exchange rates of the three largest new EU member states Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar to estimate the risk-neutral density (RND) functions and the density interval bands. Analysing the RNDs, we find that only some of the implied moments on the Polish zloty exchange rate systematically move around policy events, while the implied moments on the RNDs on the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint show more systematic changes. Regarding the HUF/EUR currency pair, monetary policy news have a significant impact on all moments, while changes in implied standard deviation signal a higher probability of interest rate changes by the Hungarian central bank. The more marked results for HUF/EUR exchange rate could reflect the fixed exchange rate regime prevailing throughout the sample period.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 440
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Foreign Exchange
International Financial Markets
- Thema
-
currency options data
Foreign exchange rate market sentiment
monetary policy news
Optionspreistheorie
Euro
US-Dollar
Schätzung
Polen
Tschechien
Ungarn
Statistische Verteilung
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Castrén, Olli
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Castrén, Olli
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2005
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