Arbeitspapier
The classification of economic activity
The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. This paper investigates three central aspects about this chronology: (1) How skillful is the BCDC in classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? (2) Which indices of business conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And (3) Which indicators predict future turning points best and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail with methods novel to economics designed to assess classification ability. In the process we clarify several important features of business cycle phenomena.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 09-18
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- Thema
-
business cycle turning points
Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve
Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Berge, Travis J.
Jordà, Oscar
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of California, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Davis, CA
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Berge, Travis J.
- Jordà, Oscar
- University of California, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2009
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