Arbeitspapier
Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?
We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated from 1999 to 2008. The performance of the models over this period is then used to derive weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that model combination improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques and data to be used in the forecasting process.
- ISBN
-
978-82-7553-483-3
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2009/01
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
forecasting
forecast combination
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Bjørnland, Hilde C.
Gerdrup, Karsten R.
Jore, Anne Sofie
Smith, Christie
Thorsrud, Leif Anders
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Norges Bank
- (wo)
-
Oslo
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Bjørnland, Hilde C.
- Gerdrup, Karsten R.
- Jore, Anne Sofie
- Smith, Christie
- Thorsrud, Leif Anders
- Norges Bank
Entstanden
- 2009
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