Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes capital inflow surges in emerging economies from 1980 to 2005. Estimated probit models are used, which discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those surges that end without such events. The results indicate that the composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform are significant determinants of outcomes. Estimated models are applied to the Latin American post-2005 inflow surge and find relatively high estimated probabilities for banking crises and recessions. This suggests that recent inflow surges characterized by high portfolio and banking inflows are a potential cause for concern and that the results constitute a prima facie case for macro prudential interventions.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: IDB Working Paper Series ; No. IDB-WP-326

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; International Lending and Debt Problems ; Financial Crises

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Powell, Andrew ; Tavella, Pilar
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
• (wo): Washington, DC
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/89106
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ