Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy
Abstract: Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors
- Location
-
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
-
Online-Ressource
- Language
-
Englisch
- Notes
-
Veröffentlichungsversion
begutachtet (peer reviewed)
In: Survey Methods: Insights from the Field (2020) ; 1-17
- Classification
-
Politik
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (where)
-
Mannheim
- (who)
-
SSOAR, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften e.V.
- (when)
-
2020
- Creator
-
Sohlberg, Jacob
Branham, J. Alexander
- DOI
-
10.13094/SMIF-2020-00013
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022080207571712826020
- Rights
-
Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
-
25.03.2025, 1:41 PM CET
Data provider
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Associated
- Sohlberg, Jacob
- Branham, J. Alexander
- SSOAR, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften e.V.
Time of origin
- 2020
Other Objects (12)
The accuracy of pre-election polling of German general elections
Contributions to Understanding - Pre-Election Poll Accuracy: A Cross-Election Perspective
How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy
Justifying the judgment process affects neither judgment accuracy, nor strategy use
The closer the better : hand proximity dynamically affects letter recognition accuracy
“Well, it’s Difficult, Very Difficult”
The Difficult
Difficult revictualling
Resounding difficult histories
Difficult to please
A difficult part
Resounding Difficult Histories
The accuracy of pre-election polling of German general elections
Contributions to Understanding - Pre-Election Poll Accuracy: A Cross-Election Perspective
How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy
Justifying the judgment process affects neither judgment accuracy, nor strategy use
The closer the better : hand proximity dynamically affects letter recognition accuracy
“Well, it’s Difficult, Very Difficult”
The Difficult
Difficult revictualling
Resounding difficult histories
Difficult to please
A difficult part
Resounding Difficult Histories
The accuracy of pre-election polling of German general elections
Contributions to Understanding - Pre-Election Poll Accuracy: A Cross-Election Perspective
How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy
Justifying the judgment process affects neither judgment accuracy, nor strategy use
The closer the better : hand proximity dynamically affects letter recognition accuracy
“Well, it’s Difficult, Very Difficult”
The Difficult
Difficult revictualling
Resounding difficult histories
Difficult to please
A difficult part