Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply

Arbeitspapier

Long-run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take the stage in accounting for this slowdown: demand-side and supply-side. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends, identified using sign restrictions based on the co-movement of prices and quantities. While supply-side factors were the main driver of long-run GDP growth prior to 2000, demand-side factors explain half of its slowdown afterwards. The findings suggest a relevant role of demand forces as drivers of long-run growth.

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• ISBN: 978-82-8379-204-1
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Paper ; No. 9/2021

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
• Thema: Long-run growth ; Super-hysteresis ; SVAR

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Norges Bank
• (wo): Oslo
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/246128