Publication bias in measuring climate sensitivity

Arbeitspapier

We present a meta-regression analysis of the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature. The relation is captured by "climate sensitivity", which measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change and constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon, which reflects the socially optimal value of a carbon tax. Climate sensitivity has been estimated by many researchers, but their results vary significantly. We collect 48 estimates from 16 studies and analyze the literature quantitatively. We find evidence for publication selection bias: researchers tend to report preferentially large estimates of climate sensitivity. Corrected for publication bias, the bulk of the literature is consistent with climate sensitivity lying between 1.4 and 2.3C.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IES Working Paper ; No. 14/2015

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Classification Discontinued 2008. See C83.
• Subject: climate sensitivity ; climate change ; CO2 ; publication bias ; meta-analysis

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Havránková, Zuzana ; Reckova, Dominika
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
• (where): Prague
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/120431
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET