Arbeitspapier

Publication bias in measuring climate sensitivity

We present a meta-regression analysis of the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature. The relation is captured by "climate sensitivity", which measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change and constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon, which reflects the socially optimal value of a carbon tax. Climate sensitivity has been estimated by many researchers, but their results vary significantly. We collect 48 estimates from 16 studies and analyze the literature quantitatively. We find evidence for publication selection bias: researchers tend to report preferentially large estimates of climate sensitivity. Corrected for publication bias, the bulk of the literature is consistent with climate sensitivity lying between 1.4 and 2.3C.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: IES Working Paper ; No. 14/2015

Classification
Wirtschaft
Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Classification Discontinued 2008. See C83.
Subject
climate sensitivity
climate change
CO2
publication bias
meta-analysis

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Havránková, Zuzana
Reckova, Dominika
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)
(where)
Prague
(when)
2015

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Havránková, Zuzana
  • Reckova, Dominika
  • Charles University in Prague, Institute of Economic Studies (IES)

Time of origin

  • 2015

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