Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Abstract d following an SSW. We find that there is little information in the precursor state to guide differences in the subsequent NAO behaviour between one SSW and another, reflecting the substantial natural variability between SSW events. The strongest relationships with the NAO response are from pre-SSW sea level pressure anomalies over the polar cap and from zonal-wind anomalies in the lower stratosphere, both exhibiting correlations of around 0.3. The pre-SSW NAO has little bearing on its post-SSW state. The strength of the pre-SSW zonal-wind anomalies at 10 hPa is also not significantly correlated with the NAO response. Finally, we find that the mean NAO response in the first 10 d following wave-2-dominated SSWs is much more strongly negative than in wave-1 cases. However, the subsequent response in days 11–30 is very similar regardless of the dominant wavenumber. In all cases, the composite mean responses are the result of very broad distributions from individual SSW events, necessitating a probabilistic analysis using large ensembles.
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Using large ensembles to quantify the impact of sudden stratospheric warmings and their precursors on the North Atlantic Oscillation ; volume:4 ; number:1 ; year:2023 ; pages:213-228 ; extent:16
Weather and climate dynamics ; 4, Heft 1 (2023), 213-228 (gesamt 16)
- Creator
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Bett, Philip E.
Scaife, Adam A.
Hardiman, Steven C.
Thornton, Hazel E.
Shen, Xiaocen
Wang, Lin
Pang, Bo
- DOI
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10.5194/wcd-4-213-2023
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023033006353835206443
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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14.08.2025, 10:48 AM CEST
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Associated
- Bett, Philip E.
- Scaife, Adam A.
- Hardiman, Steven C.
- Thornton, Hazel E.
- Shen, Xiaocen
- Wang, Lin
- Pang, Bo
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