Arbeitspapier
A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour
We fit the logistic function, the reduced form of epidemic behaviour, to the data for deaths from Covid-19, for a wide variety of countries, with a view to estimating a causal model of the covid virus' progression. We then set out a structural model of the Covid virus behaviour based on evolutionary biology and social household behaviour; we estimated and tested this by indirect inference, matching its simulated logistic behaviour to that found in the data. In our model the virus' progression depends on the interaction of strategies by household agents, the government and the virus itself as programmed by evolution. Within these interactions, it turns out that there is substitution between government topdown direction (such as lockdown) and social reaction to available information on the virus'behaviour. We also looked at experience of second waves, where we found that countries successfully limited second waves when they had had longer first waves and followed policies of localised reaction in the second.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Cardiff Economics Working Papers ; No. E2020/4
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Quantitative Policy Modeling
Health Behavior
- Thema
-
coronavirus
Covid-19
evolution
optimisation
indirect inference
lockdown
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Meenagh, David
Minford, Patrick
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
- (wo)
-
Cardiff
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Meenagh, David
- Minford, Patrick
- Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
Entstanden
- 2021
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: What do four waves of Covid tell us?
Testing the monetary policy rule in the US: A reconsideration of the Fed's behaviour
Understanding UK trade agreements with the EU and other countries
The effects of Brexit on the UK economy
Evaluating European trading arrangements
Post-Brexit realism and international law: Renegotiating a bad Withdrawal Agreement
Where next for monetary policy? Lessons from the financial crisis and the pandemic
The banking crisis: A rational interpretation
Commentary on economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)
A note rebutting the recent Cambridge Econometrics assessment of Brexit on the UK and London economies: Commissioned by London Mayor Khan
Free Trade under Brexit: Why its benefits have been widely underestimated
Can a Real Business Cycle Model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?
A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: What do four waves of Covid tell us?
Testing the monetary policy rule in the US: A reconsideration of the Fed's behaviour
Understanding UK trade agreements with the EU and other countries
The effects of Brexit on the UK economy
Evaluating European trading arrangements
Post-Brexit realism and international law: Renegotiating a bad Withdrawal Agreement
Where next for monetary policy? Lessons from the financial crisis and the pandemic
The banking crisis: A rational interpretation
Commentary on economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)
A note rebutting the recent Cambridge Econometrics assessment of Brexit on the UK and London economies: Commissioned by London Mayor Khan
Free Trade under Brexit: Why its benefits have been widely underestimated
Can a Real Business Cycle Model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?
A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: What do four waves of Covid tell us?
Testing the monetary policy rule in the US: A reconsideration of the Fed's behaviour
Understanding UK trade agreements with the EU and other countries
The effects of Brexit on the UK economy
Evaluating European trading arrangements
Post-Brexit realism and international law: Renegotiating a bad Withdrawal Agreement
Where next for monetary policy? Lessons from the financial crisis and the pandemic
The banking crisis: A rational interpretation
Commentary on economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)
A note rebutting the recent Cambridge Econometrics assessment of Brexit on the UK and London economies: Commissioned by London Mayor Khan
Free Trade under Brexit: Why its benefits have been widely underestimated