The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach

Arbeitspapier

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a potentially severe constraint. Conventional studies of inflation persistence cannot identify changes in persistence at selected quantiles that leave persistence at the median of the distribution unchanged. Based on post-war US data we indeed find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting, quantile autoregression based unit root tests suggest that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile of the conditional inflation distribution.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Economics Working Paper ; No. 2014-09

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
• Subject: inflation persistence ; quantile regressions ; structural breaks ; unit root test ; monetary policy ; Federal Reserve

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Tillmann, Peter ; Wolters, Maik H.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel University, Department of Economics
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97319
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET