Population Ageing and Future Demand for Old-Age and Disability Pensions in Germany - A Probabilistic Approach
Abstract: Industrialised economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. Population ageing is associated not only with longer periods of pension claims but also smaller cohorts eventually entering the labour market. This threatens the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security systems for implementing or further improving appropriate reform measures; adequate forecasts of the future population structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model considers trends in population development, labour force participation, and early retirement, as well as the effects of pension reforms. Principal component analysis is used to manage the high degree of complexity involved in forecasting trends in old-age and disability pension claims, which arises because of cross-correlations between old-age and disability pension rates
- Standort
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Umfang
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Online-Ressource
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Anmerkungen
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Veröffentlichungsversion
begutachtet (peer reviewed)
In: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft ; 47 (2022) ; 87-118
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wo)
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Mannheim
- (wer)
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SSOAR, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften e.V.
- (wann)
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2022
- Urheber
- DOI
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10.12765/CPoS-2022-05
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023072609001841387864
- Rechteinformation
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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14.08.2025, 10:55 MESZ
Datenpartner
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Beteiligte
- Vanella, Patrizio
- Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez
- Wilke, Christina Benita
- SSOAR, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften e.V.
Entstanden
- 2022
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