Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: The 2008-09 recession in Germany

Arbeitspapier

The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008-09, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3403

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models ; Labor Demand ; Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; includes inheritance and gift taxes ; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
• Thema: labor demand ; output shock ; tax-benefit system ; crisis ; income distribution ; Konjunktur ; Wirtschaftskrise ; Arbeitsnachfrage ; Schock ; Verteilungswirkung ; Arbeitszeitflexibilisierung ; Lohnersatzleistungen ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Deutschland

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Bargain, Olivier ; Immervoll, Herwig ; Peichl, Andreas ; Siegloch, Sebastian
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2011

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46508
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ