Seasonal adjustment and reliability of euro area GDP – Increased uncertainty in times of unusual developments?

Konferenzbeitrag

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) data are inevitably surrounded by uncertainty. Disregarding methodological improvements, two main sources of revisions can be distinguished: First, revisions that reflect the incorporation of more comprehensive or more representative, but generally less timely, source data and second, revisions that are related to seasonal adjustment. This paper aims to get some insights into the overall statistical uncertainty surrounding first estimates of quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP volume growth in the euro area, in particular the so-called "flash estimate", published by Eurostat around 45 days after the end of the reference quarter, and the first regular estimate, published around two and a half weeks later.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2011: Die Ordnung der Weltwirtschaft: Lektionen aus der Krise - Session: Productivity and Growth ; No. C8-V2

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Mehrhoff, Jens ; Eiglsperger, Martin ; Haine, Wim
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/48721
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET