Breakthroughs, Backlashes and Artificial General Intelligence: An Extended Real Options Approach

Arbeitspapier

Breakthroughs and backlashes have marked progress in the development and diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI). These shocks make the investment in developing an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper applies a real options model, extended to account for stochastic jumps, to model the consequences of these breakthroughs and backlashes characterising on investment for an AGI. The model analytics indicate that the average magnitude and frequency of stochastic jumps will determine the optimum amount of time and money to invest in pursuing an AGI and that these may be too expensive and time-consuming for most private entrepreneurs.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 15077

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives ; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D ; Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis ; Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
• Subject: radical innovation ; real option models ; artificial intelligence ; risk

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gries, Thomas ; Naudé, Wim
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
• (where): Bonn
• (when): 2022

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/252201
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET