The accuracy of long-term real estate valuations

Arbeitspapier

By using a unique data set of single-family house transactions, we examine the accuracy of the cost and sales comparison approach over different forecast horizons. We find that sales comparison values provide better long-term forecasts than cost values if the economic loss function is symmetric. A weighted average of both sales comparison value and cost value can reduce this loss even further. If the economic loss function is asymmetric, however, cost values might provide better long-term forecasts.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: SFB 649 Discussion Paper ; No. 2008,019

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
• Subject: prediction accuracy ; mortgage underwriting ; risk management ; Immobilienbewertung ; Prognoseverfahren ; Hypothek ; Theorie ; Berlin

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Schulz, Rainer ; Staiber, Markus ; Wersing, Martin ; Werwatz, Axel
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2008

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/25261
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET