Accounting for uncertainties in forecasting tropical-cyclone-induced compound flooding

Abstract < 10  %, suggesting that TC-FF can be employed as an alternative, for example, in data-scarce environments. The method was applied to Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. The underlying physical model showed reliable skill in terms of tidal propagation, reproducing the storm surge generation during landfall and flooding near the city of Beira (success index of 0.59). The method was successfully applied to forecasting the impact of Idai with different lead times. The case study analyzed needed at least 200 ensemble members to get reliable water levels and flood results 3 d before landfall (< 1  % flood probability error and < 20  cm sampling errors). Results showed the sensitivity of forecasting, especially with increasing lead times, highlighting the importance of accounting for cyclone variability in decision-making and risk management.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Accounting for uncertainties in forecasting tropical-cyclone-induced compound flooding ; volume:17 ; number:4 ; year:2024 ; pages:1789-1811 ; extent:23 ; Geoscientific model development ; 17, Heft 4 (2024), 1789-1811 (gesamt 23)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Nederhoff, Kees ; van Ormondt, Maarten ; Veeramony, Jay ; van Dongeren, Ap ; Antolínez, José Antonio Álvarez ; Leijnse, Tim ; Roelvink, Dano

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-1789-2024
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2024030703304102201023
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 2025-08-14T10:52:04+0200