Arbeitspapier

Inflationary household uncertainty shocks

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. These results lend support to a pricing bias mechanism as an important transmission channel. A comparison of results across countries suggest that demographics and factors related to average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. I develop an Overlapping Generations New Keynesian model with Deep Habits to rationalize these results.

ISBN
978-952-323-324-9
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 5/2020

Classification
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Macro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy‡
Subject
uncertainty
inflation
household expectations
deep habits
demographics

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ambrocio, Gene
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Bank of Finland
(where)
Helsinki
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ambrocio, Gene
  • Bank of Finland

Time of origin

  • 2020

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