Arbeitspapier
Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach
How forward guidance influences expectations is not yet fully understood. To study this issue, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I find that, in response to a change in forward guidance, forecasters revise their interest rate forecasts in the intended direction by five basis points on average. The effect is not attributable to central bank information effects. Instead, when forming rate expectations, forecasters place full weight on their own inflation and growth forecasts and zero weight on those of the central bank.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper ; No. 2020-40
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
Central bank research
Monetary policy
Monetary policy communications
Transmission of monetary policy
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Sutherland, Christopher S.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Canada
- (wo)
-
Ottawa
- (wann)
-
2020
- DOI
-
doi:10.34989/swp-2020-40
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Sutherland, Christopher S.
- Bank of Canada
Entstanden
- 2020
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Evaluating the effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases
Forward guidance at the effective lower bound: International experience
How do central bank projections and forward guidance influence private-sector forecasts?
Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields
Has the inclusion of forward-looking statements in monetary policy communications made the Bank of Canada more transparent?
Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces
Optimal monetary policy during endogenous housing-market boom-bust cycles
Evaluating the effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases
Forward guidance at the effective lower bound: International experience
How do central bank projections and forward guidance influence private-sector forecasts?
Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields
Has the inclusion of forward-looking statements in monetary policy communications made the Bank of Canada more transparent?
Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces
Optimal monetary policy during endogenous housing-market boom-bust cycles
Evaluating the effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases
Forward guidance at the effective lower bound: International experience
How do central bank projections and forward guidance influence private-sector forecasts?
Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields
Has the inclusion of forward-looking statements in monetary policy communications made the Bank of Canada more transparent?
Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada
Identifying asymmetric comovements of international stock market returns
On the existence and fragility of repo markets
Sterilized intervention in emerging-market economies: Trends, costs, and risks
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces