Arbeitspapier
Forecast with judgment and models
This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: NBB Working Paper ; No. 153
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Subject
-
forecasting
judgment
structural models
Kalman Filter
real time
Makroökonometrie
Prognoseverfahren
Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
Wirtschaftsprognose
Theorie
Schätzung
USA
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Monti, Francesca
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
National Bank of Belgium
- (where)
-
Brussels
- (when)
-
2008
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Monti, Francesca
- National Bank of Belgium
Time of origin
- 2008
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