Arbeitspapier
Forecast with judgment and models
This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: NBB Working Paper ; No. 153
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
forecasting
judgment
structural models
Kalman Filter
real time
Makroökonometrie
Prognoseverfahren
Allgemeines Gleichgewicht
Wirtschaftsprognose
Theorie
Schätzung
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Monti, Francesca
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
National Bank of Belgium
- (wo)
-
Brussels
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Monti, Francesca
- National Bank of Belgium
Entstanden
- 2008
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