Arbeitspapier
Assessing forecasting performance of business tendency surveys during the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia
This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with forecasts based on a benchmark univariate autoregressive model.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 306
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Subject
-
The Great Recession
business tendency surveys
forecasting
model selection
Autometrics
Russia
Geschäftsklima
Wirtschaftskrise
Industrielle Produktion
Prognoseverfahren
Modellierung
Russland
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Smirnov, Sergey
Tsukhlo, Sergey
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
- (where)
-
Zurich
- (when)
-
2012
- DOI
-
doi:10.3929/ethz-a-007328340
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Siliverstovs, Boriss
- Smirnov, Sergey
- Tsukhlo, Sergey
- ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Time of origin
- 2012
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