Arbeitspapier
Assessing the forecasting performance of a macroeconomic model
This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy.We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model.The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty.We are also able to assess the linearity of the model.Forecasting performance is also analyzed in a conventional way by means of dynamic simulation.The important issue in these simulations is the stability of the model: how simulated values depend on the estimation period and the ordering of time periods.
- ISBN
-
951-686-519-4
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers ; No. 23/1996
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
forecasting
macro models
simulation
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Hukkinen, Juhana
Virén, Matti
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Finland
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
1996
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Hukkinen, Juhana
- Virén, Matti
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 1996
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