Arbeitspapier
Assessing the forecasting performance of a macroeconomic model
This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy.We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model.The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty.We are also able to assess the linearity of the model.Forecasting performance is also analyzed in a conventional way by means of dynamic simulation.The important issue in these simulations is the stability of the model: how simulated values depend on the estimation period and the ordering of time periods.
- ISBN
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951-686-519-4
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers ; No. 23/1996
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
- Subject
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forecasting
macro models
simulation
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Hukkinen, Juhana
Virén, Matti
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Bank of Finland
- (where)
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Helsinki
- (when)
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1996
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Hukkinen, Juhana
- Virén, Matti
- Bank of Finland
Time of origin
- 1996
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